A little defeat here and there is no bad thing

William Hague, as Foreign Secretary, has been in the forefront of the efforts to tip the balance against Colonel Gaddafi in Libya. There is nothing he wants more than for this little escapade to end in Gaddafi's departure from the world stage - and british forces are actively helping to bring about such a result.

The problem is not so much that they may fail to depose an evil dictator. The world is full of such people. We will always have to put up with them and learn to live with them, so one more will make little difference to our interests. The real problem comes when we succeed in such military conquests.

Tony Blair enjoyed military success early in his period as Prime Minister. In 1999, Serb forces had run riot in Kosovo, killing many thousands of innocent people. To be very fair to Mr Blair, his intervention, and the military action that followed, was necessary and justified and put a stop to genocide. In the end, it helped to liberate Kosovo from a brutal regime. All well and good.

The down-side to this campaign occurred when Blair arrived in Kosovo and was lauded as a hero. The scenes were dizzying - thousands jostled to shake his hand and he shared a stage with a children's choir dubbed the 'Young Toniblers', singing the american Band-Aid anthem 'We are the World'. In short, he was treated as a liberating hero - which, of course, he was.

Blair mobbed by a grateful crowd in Kosovo

It must have been very difficult to maintain a level head after that. He had pursued a military solution to a world problem, succeeded, and been taken upwards on a cloud towards living sainthood. The manner of his welcome in Kosovo must have left him light-headed. Who could have blamed him? Is it any wonder that he became seduced by his status as a hero, a world statesman deserving of a place in history? Is it really that difficult to understand why he became enthralled by military solutions to difficult situations? Then, along came 9-11 and George Bush...

The halo-ed hero - seduced by a place in history

The rest is indeed history. Tony Blair's eagerness to join in disastrous military campaigns will occupy the history books for many years to come. Not just the outcome of the Iran and Afghanistan campaigns - but the single-minded enthusiasm, distortions, and lies - all of which steam-rollered us into a full-scale military intervention. He has gone from hero to zero in many ordinary people's eyes and now looks like a man comfortable only in the company of the exalted.

Blair - From Hero to Warmonger

So, maybe if Gaddafi gets off the hook and William Hague finds that UN Resolutions and military options are not the quick fix, regime-changing solutions he once thought they were, that may not be such a bad thing. Maybe his path to being a great statesman lies in hard diplomacy - by persuading other leaders and by using non-military options to bring troublesome dictators into line. Perhaps he will learn that being in the history books as a statesman of great repute will trump being there as a warmonger. And just maybe he will learn that sainthood is rarely the preserve of politicians anyway.

The worst outcome for a potential gambler is to win his first bet. Winning first time around can be a dizzying experience and can be the catalyst for a lifetime of gambling. No! Sometimes, it is better to lose a few quid on that first horse - it may help you to keep your hands in your pockets in future. If Gaddafi does survive, then maybe the rush to military action in the future will be more considered and not seem like a glamorous quick-fix solution. Don't be down-hearted Mr Hague. You may end up choosing your battles more carefully next time. And while you're at it - and if you are at all interested in sainthood - perhaps you could stop selling these evil dictators military hardware in the first place. That might just make you my hero.